The Profit Sector
Member Login
No Result
View All Result
The Profit Sector
Member Login
The Profit Sector
No Result
View All Result

The Fed’s Christmas List

Morning in the Markets

Briton Ryle by Briton Ryle
December 9, 2022
in Analysis
0
One Continuous line drawing of Christmas Present box with ribbon and bow. Festive present and Wrapped surprise package in simple linear style. Doodle vector illustration

The stock market is always a battle between the bears and the bulls, the buyers and the sellers, fear, and greed. When one side appears weak, the other will press its advantage. It’s a simple explanation that puts yesterday’s rally in a useful framework.

That is, support at 3,920 on the S&P 500 held for two consecutive days, and that was enough strength to give investors confidence to take stock prices higher. 

Was there any new info that needed digesting? Not really. The Fed didn’t say anything, there wasn’t any significant earnings news, no important economic data…

That changes today, however, when November's Producer Price Index (PPI) is released this morning. The PPI measures how much the companies that make stuff are paying for the materials they need to make stuff. In other words, it measures inflation at the company level, the assumption being that higher prices at that level will be passed on to the consumer, which is then measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

You might also like

Rockstar Games Rallies Take-Two Interactive Stock (TTWO) with GTA Buzz

Novavax Stock Analysis: Financials & Market Sentiment

Fortinet's Q3 Earnings Miss: Impact on Stock Performance

Today’s PPI is the first inflation data we get from November. And it was expected to show a pretty sizable decline. October’s year-over-year rise was 6.7%. The November read was expected to show a year-over-year rise of 5.9%. 

The Fed was praying to Santa to get its Christmas wish: that this report would come in as expected or better. Because as we discussed yesterday, bond prices are pricing in rising expectations for a recession. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell does not want to go down in history as the guy that ignored inflation for nearly a year and then caused a recession to fix his mistake.

It would be better for everyone if inflation would cooperate and retreat under the weight of the rate hikes that have already happened. Sure, that’s what you’d call a Goldilocks scenario. And it’s all Powell’s got right now. 

So, I don’t know what Powell did to get on Santa’s naughty list, but he is not getting his Christmas wish. Instead of the expected decline for November’s PPI, it actually showed a slight gain. 

And that’s going to set off more talk of recession, projections that the so-called “terminal rate” for interest rates will now be higher than 5.25% and, sadly, very likely send the stock market on a new leg lower. 

3,920 on the S&P 500 is very unlikely to hold as support, given this new inflation report. The 50-day Moving Average (MA) for the S&P 500 sits at 3,834, likely the next stopping point. And if next week’s CPI report is also worse than expected, the S&P 500 will head lower still. 

That’s your “Morning in the Markets,” sorry, it’s not better news.

Take care, and I’ll talk to you soon.

brits-sig

Briton Ryle
The Profit Sector

Related Posts

  • Elon Musk's New Enemy: The Fed
  • Bull Markets Take the Stairs and Bear Markets Take the Elevator
  • Did the Fed Just Close the Window?
Tags: BondsConsumer Price Index (CPI)Interest RatesProducer Price Index (PPI)RecessionThe Fed
Briton Ryle

Briton Ryle

I’ve been trading, investing, and sharing my insights with individual investors since 1998.  Back then, the internet was not a very useful research tool. Armed with a library card and a huge budget for the printer, I’d scroll the microfiche for Wall Street Journal and Financial Times articles. I bought technical books on wireless technology and fiber optic networks. I traveled to Chicago to learn the secrets of stock options trading directly from the experts on the floor of the CBOE.  I’ve attended and spoken at more investor conferences than I can remember…. All because I’ve always taken my responsibility to my readers and subscribers very seriously. I refuse to parrot popular opinion, offer up half-baked ideas or publish incomplete or half-hearted research.  There is no shortcut to deep research... becoming as close to an expert on topics, trends, and technology as possible. And the rewards are life-changing. The very first stock I ever recommended was South Korea’s SK Telecom. My readers enjoyed a 150% profit in a matter of months.  And after 25 years, I’ve helped tens of thousands of readers change their financial fortunes.  A few months ago, I donated all my suits to Goodwill, pulled my name off the list of speakers for the big investor conferences, and left the big city for Southern Georgia. The plan was to retire to the banks of a tidal creek that splits off from the St. Mary’s river as it enters the Atlantic between Cumberland and Amelia islands... and trade stocks when I felt like it. But, I guess retirement wasn’t for me after all. I’m back, and this is gonna be something special. 

Recommended For You

Rockstar Games Rallies Take-Two Interactive Stock (TTWO) with GTA Buzz

by Profit Sector Research
November 8, 2023
0
Neo city with cyberpunk style and natural environment. Futuristic landscape, 3D render

Rockstar's GTA VI reveal fuels Take-Two's market climb & investor excitement. Read the latest on TTWO stock movement.

Read more

Novavax Stock Analysis: Financials & Market Sentiment

by Profit Sector Research
November 4, 2023
0
Medical disposable syringe for vaccine injection and glass vial on blue blur background.

Unpack the latest on NVAX stock with our analysis of financial health, investor actions, and EU regulatory updates.

Read more

Fortinet’s Q3 Earnings Miss: Impact on Stock Performance

by Profit Sector Research
November 3, 2023
0
Data volume analysis and computer science industry.3d illustration.

Explore Fortinet's Q3 earnings impact on FTNT stock, with revised forecasts and analyst insights shaping investment potential.

Read more

The Next Big Thing in AI: Unearthing The Gems Beneath the Surface

by Profit Sector Research
October 20, 2023
0
AIhead

In the dynamic world of investment, those who stand still are often left behind. But sometimes, understanding and acting upon historical patterns can pave the way for future...

Read more

Why Battery Stocks Are The Unseen Goldmine in the EV Revolution

by Profit Sector Research
October 20, 2023
0
2023 Electric Vehicle (EV) Sector Update: The Fight for Market Share, Revenue, and Investors

Discover the overlooked potential of battery metals in the EV revolution. As lithium and cobalt demand soars, the real investment goldmine lies beyond just EVs.

Read more
Next Post
[Review] Boston Blackout 2023, Porter Stansberry and Company & New England’s Natural Gas Crisis

[Review] Boston Blackout 2023, Porter Stansberry and Company & New England's Natural Gas Crisis

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recent Posts

Neo city with cyberpunk style and natural environment. Futuristic landscape, 3D render

Rockstar Games Rallies Take-Two Interactive Stock (TTWO) with GTA Buzz

November 8, 2023
Medical disposable syringe for vaccine injection and glass vial on blue blur background.

Novavax Stock Analysis: Financials & Market Sentiment

November 4, 2023
Data volume analysis and computer science industry.3d illustration.

Fortinet’s Q3 Earnings Miss: Impact on Stock Performance

November 3, 2023
AIhead

The Next Big Thing in AI: Unearthing The Gems Beneath the Surface

October 20, 2023
  • Home
  • Member Login
  • What is The Profit Sector?
  • Contributors
  • FAQs
  • Featured Articles
  • Dividends and Income
  • Analysis
  • Investment Strategies
  • Saturday Digest
  • Newsletter Reviews
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy for The Profit Sector
Contact Us

Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This website may only be used pursuant to the Terms and Conditions and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the World Wide Web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of The Profit Sector, LLC. 415 1st Ave N #19868, Seattle, WA 98109

© 2024 The Profit Sector, LLC. All rights reserved. Our website provides stock market research, commentary, and analysis. Information is provided “as is” and solely for information purposes, not for trading purposes or advice.

Nothing on this website should be considered personalized financial advice. Any investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your personal investment advisor and only after performing your own research and due diligence, including reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the issuer of any security. The Profit Sector, its managers, its employees, affiliates and assigns (collectively "The Company") do not make any guarantee or warranty about the advice provided on this website or what is otherwise advertised above. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the Company disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, opinions, advice and/or recommendations provided herein prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Member Login
  • What is The Profit Sector?
  • Contributors
  • Saturday Digest
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Privacy Policy for The Profit Sector
  • Terms and Conditions

Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This website may only be used pursuant to the Terms and Conditions and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the World Wide Web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of The Profit Sector, LLC. 415 1st Ave N #19868, Seattle, WA 98109

© 2024 The Profit Sector, LLC. All rights reserved. Our website provides stock market research, commentary, and analysis. Information is provided “as is” and solely for information purposes, not for trading purposes or advice.

Nothing on this website should be considered personalized financial advice. Any investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your personal investment advisor and only after performing your own research and due diligence, including reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the issuer of any security. The Profit Sector, its managers, its employees, affiliates and assigns (collectively "The Company") do not make any guarantee or warranty about the advice provided on this website or what is otherwise advertised above. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the Company disclaims any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, opinions, advice and/or recommendations provided herein prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In

Add New Playlist